Editor’s Note: Dennis Fassett is a former corporate finance executive turned real estate investing “Cash Flow Mercenary.” Dennis specializes in single-family and multi-family cash flow properties and thoroughly enjoys assisting his fellow investors with their own strategies, including how to buy your first apartment building.
As an ongoing contributor to Mogul’s “Market News Updates,” Mr. Fassett provides us with his own unique, lively, and thought-provoking commentary on the timely industry news and events of today that are impacting our industry. And be sure to check out his other super-helpful Market News Updates. For now, enjoy...
From Dennis Fassett, Cash Flow Mercenary...
As you know, I’ve been keeping an eye on this for some time – looking for signs that the market may turn.
Since I’m reading a lot about this, I thought that periodically I’d share what I find.
Here’s what I’ve read recently...
From Seeking Alpha
In a recent article, these folks think that “we’re definitely not in a housing bubble.”
They looked at inflation-adjusted home prices and based on the chart below, they state that prices are exactly where they were in the first half of 2004.
They went on to state that from 2002 to the final peak in 2006, home prices were consistently growing 7.5% or greater every year and even jumped to as high as 16% on a year-over-year basis during the blow-off phase in 2005.
Currently, home prices are appreciating around 6.5% each year. That's still below bubble-level growth rates.
From CNBC
I read a recent post from CNBC that reported that “four major US cities ring housing bubble alarm.”
Their summary was that:
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Home prices in Denver, Houston, Miami and the Washington, D.C. metro area are now considered overvalued.
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Some previously hot markets, such as San Francisco and the New York City metropolitan area, are cooling down.
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Low mortgage rates are keeping the market affordable from a monthly perspective, but affordability will likely become a much bigger challenge in the coming years.
They based their conclusions on data from CoreLogic…
To determine if a market is overvalued, CoreLogic compares current prices to their long-run, sustainable levels, which are supported by local economic fundamentals like disposable income.
An overvalued market is one in which home prices are at least 10%higher than that level. The rest of the top 10 markets are considered "at value," but none are undervalued, as prices are higher in all of them compared with a year ago.
From the LA Times
The Times reported last month that “U.S. home sales fell in June because shoppers couldn't find houses to buy.”
They wrote that homebuyers faced surging prices and a shrinking number of properties for sale in June — causing the pace of sales to fall. And that sales of existing homes slipped 1.8% last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.52 million.
They went on to say that:
“The decline speaks to a troubling cycle for a U.S. housing market hampered by a worsening shortage of properties to buy. Despite solid demand for houses in a relatively healthy economy, sales listings have been steadily declining for more than two years. The resulting shortage has caused prices to consistently rise faster than wage gains, making it harder for Americans to build up their net worth by becoming homeowners.”
Also from CNBC
CNBC reported on research by JP Morgan that “points to low risk of a US housing correction.”
They summarized their findings like this:
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JPMorgan's research found that sharp price corrections have been relatively uncommon, even following large price increases.
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The research comes as fears grow over a housing bubble forming in the West, particularly in countries like the U.S., Canada and Australia.
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On Monday, The National Association of Realtors said that U.S. home resale volumes had fallen more than expected in June.
They went on to write that these impressive increases in housing prices have stoked a long-running debate about the sustainability of Canadian house prices, and similar rumblings are beginning again in the U.S. as well.
Defenders claim that price increases result from rising incomes encountering supply constraints in desirable areas, while skeptics see a bubble with significant risk of popping.
So from all of this, it looks like we’re not in a bubble – yet. But more and more folks are starting to believe that one is forming.
What Do You Think?
Share your bubble thoughts below.
Dennis Fassett
earned a BS in Economics and followed that up with an MBA in finance. After working and corporate finance and banking for several years, he started buying single family houses, and quickly built a very nice portfolio of cash flowing rentals. When the credit markets started to dry up and he couldn’t get any additional single family mortgages he shifted his focus to apartment buildings. He now has over $3 million in rental real estate. He manages most of it his self and still has a day job. Dennis has even created his own Private Equity fund to buy apartment buildings.