Editor’s Note: Dennis Fassett is a former corporate finance executive turned real estate investing “Cash Flow Mercenary.” Dennis specializes in single-family and multi-family cash flow properties and thoroughly enjoys assisting his fellow investors with their own strategies, including how to buy your first apartment building.
As an ongoing contributor to Mogul’s “Market News Updates,” Mr. Fassett provides us with his own unique, lively, and thought-provoking commentary on the timely industry news and events of today that are impacting our industry. And be sure to check out his other super-helpful Market News Updates. For now, enjoy...
From Dennis Fassett, Cash Flow Mercenary...
We can all see first-hand what real estate is doing.
The NAR crowd recently reported that:
“Existing-home sales surged for the third straight month in November and reached their strongest pace in almost 11 years, and that all major regions except for the West saw a significant hike in sales activity in November.”
Their analysis pointed to the economy:
“Faster economic growth in recent quarters, the booming stock market and continuous job gains are fueling substantial demand for buying a home.”
And they singled out investors as part of the problem:
“The elevated presence of investors paying in cash continues to add a layer of frustration to the supply and affordability headwinds aspiring first-time buyers are experiencing…”
and
“The healthy labor market and higher wage gains are expected to further strengthen buyer demand from young adults next year. Their prospects for becoming homeowners will only improve if more lower-priced and smaller-sized homes come onto the market.”
But then there’s the economy.
I read a piece the other day that indicted that economic performance may not be as great as it appears on the surface.
But, it’s pretty plain to see that for each of the last two quarters:
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GPD grew at an annual rate of 3%
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exports are growing
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the stock market is high
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unemployment is low
And the Fed has made optimistic statements about the future and may let interest rates rise.
The author disagrees, though, with the rosy picture being painted by the Fed.
He says that:
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In a third of the 320 markets his company tracks, the number of jobs increased by less than 1% in the past year.
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In half of those 320 markets, income grew less than inflation.
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And in two-thirds of them, home prices have not fully recovered from the last recession.
He asks how can there be such a mismatch, and what does it mean for real estate and investing?
His explanation is that the most important development of the last several decades is the concentration of economic activity.
Corporations and businesses in general are pushing to grow as much and as fast as possible, which technology now facilitates.
At the same time, he says, companies are more reliant on the infrastructure and outsourced services that exist in urban centers.
He thinks this results in a concentration of economic output in a relatively small number of local markets.
And that just 50 metro areas in the U.S. now produce 75% of total GDP.
That’s staggering if you think about it.
He says that we may very well be on a track to have two kinds of real estate markets:
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Those closely linked to the supply and demand cycles of the national economy.
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Those where the local economy is affected more by social characteristics than by production output.
He believes that over the long term, they’re of course related and connected.
But in the short timeframe that real estate investors operate, the differences may be the key to good investment strategies.
He explains that the investment significance for markets that are closely linked to the national economy is that demand and supply are often out of sync, leading to classic home price and rent cycles that may last just a few years at a time.
And that those are the markets that present opportunities for bigger returns but also have higher risk; investors need to have specific entry and exit plans and need to pay close attention to ongoing economic developments.
He also says that in those types of markets, there is, in general, a strong relationship between the amount of job growth and the increase in home prices.
Interesting analysis. Digging into this more may give you better market intelligence as to where to focus your real estate investing activities.
Your take?
What do you think about how the economy is affecting real estate? Share below
Dennis Fassett
earned a BS in Economics and followed that up with an MBA in finance. After working and corporate finance and banking for several years, he started buying single family houses, and quickly built a very nice portfolio of cash flowing rentals. When the credit markets started to dry up and he couldn’t get any additional single family mortgages he shifted his focus to apartment buildings. He now has over $3 million in rental real estate. He manages most of it his self and still has a day job. Dennis has even created his own Private Equity fund to buy apartment buildings.